News
tralac’s Daily News Selection
The selection: Tuesday, 12 April 2016
Profiled trade and development conferences now underway:
In Ibadan: the 'Africa Feeding Africa' conference
In Arusha: the EAC-USAID Regional trade and feed the future coordination conference
In Dubai: the 2nd Indian Ocean Rim Association Ministerial Economic and Business Conference and the Annual Investment Meeting
In Washington: the WB/IMF Spring Meetings
Diarise: UNCTAD/TMEA discussion on trade facilitation and regional integration in Africa (21 July, Nairobi)
Third Africa Think Tanks Summit: communiqué (ACBF)
Infographic: Kenyan coffee export trend since 1990
Africa's pulse (World Bank)
Terms-of-trade shock and impact on economic performance in Sub-Saharan Africa (Section 2): The region can be classified into three groups according to terms-of-trade exposure to price declines: (a) vulnerable countries (those with terms-of-trade deterioration that exceeded 10%), (b) less vulnerable (with terms-of-trade decline less than 10%, and (c) terms of trade gainers (with positive change in their terms of trade as a result of a price shock to the commodity basket). According to the simulation, the distribution of gains and losses in the terms of trade across countries in the region is asymmetric.
For instance, terms-of-trade losers (31 out of 48 SSA countries) are predicted to have an average loss of about 17%. These countries represent 63% of the region Gross Domestic Product and about 74% of its population. The group of less vulnerable countries is formed by 19 countries that registered terms-of-trade losses that did not exceed 10%. The group represents more than 15% of the region’s GDP and about 40% of its population. The group of terms of trade gainers comprises 17 countries with terms-of-trade gains. More than 25% of SSA’s population lives in this group of countries, which produces about 36% of the region’s GDP. The magnitude of the terms-of-trade gains is considerably smaller than the losses in the vulnerable countries: they fluctuate between 0.1% (Lesotho) and 7.8% (Eritrea). The majority of countries in this group benefited from cheaper energy prices; however, these gains were partly offset by decreased prices for in non-energy commodities in some countries. For instance, gains from lower oil prices in Botswana and South Africa were partly offset by weaker prices of iron ore and nickel, respectively. [Related, regional economic updates from the World Bank: The impact of China on Europe and Central Asia, East Asia Pacific, South Asia]
Demand for World Bank lending on the rise as countries face headwinds
Network analysis of foreign investment into African cities, 2003–2014
Firstly, on the left, we see a powerful North-West African network region with Cairo, Tripoli, Tunis and Algiers at the heart of it. The thicker the red line between cities and countries, the more investment taking place. Secondly, we see a very intense Sub Saharan core with Luanda, Lagos and Johannesburg as the kingpins. It is by far the strongest cluster of interaction in Africa. It means that this city cluster interacts more with each other than with the other two core regions. Thirdly, a smaller network region is seen which could almost be regarded as a Nigerian sub-region because of the strong presence of Abuja and Delta State. Interestingly it seems strongly connected to commodity ports like Richards Bay, Mossel Bay and Port Sudan. [The author: Ronald Wall]
Botswana: 2015 Article IV Consultation (IMF)
There are important risks to the outlook. In the near term, the main downside risks are: (i) sluggish growth in key advanced and emerging economies, that could lead to continued weakness in the demand for diamonds (and copper); (ii) unresolved economic problems in South Africa and continued depreciation of the Rand, which could lower SACU receipts and have a negative impact on regional investors’ sentiment12; and (iii) delays in plans to restore reliability and self-sufficiency in the water and electricity sectors, which would have adverse impact on costs, the fiscal balance, and the business environment; as well as delays on other structural reforms (e.g. deregulation and removal of red tape).
Unlocking Nigeria’s potential: the path to well-being (Boston Consulting Group)
Studies show that Nigeria will need to invest about $3 trillion in infrastructure over the next 30 years, or roughly $100 billion a year. That is equal to nearly 20% of current GDP annually. The upshot: it will be critical to attract substantial outside investment in the form of public-private partnerships. We recommend five actions for addressing Nigeria's infrastructure crisis: [Download] [Emefiele: Agriculture can’t survive on high lending rate (ThisDay)]
Nigeria: Customs loses N230bn revenue to CBN’s forex ban on 41 items (ThisDay)
The Nigeria Customs Service recorded a loss of N230 billion in the last quarter of 2015 due to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s closure of the foreign exchange window to 41 imported items. The Comptroller General of Customs, Col. Hameed Ibrahim Ali (rtd), who made the disclosure, said a request for the review of the policy had been tabled before Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo.
World Bank, Shippers’ Council meet over trade facilitation (The Punch)
A trade facilitation team from the World Bank on Monday met with the management of the Nigerian Shippers’ Council over the ratification of the Trade Facilitation Agreement. The visit was aimed at encouraging Nigeria’s consent to the TFA, which is a trade instrument designed by member nations of the World Trade Organisation. Nigeria’s Ambassador to the WTO, Ademola Adejumo said: “As an importer, you don’t need to run to about 13 agencies to submit your documents for approval. Under a single window arrangement, you can get everything done from the comfort of your office. This is one of the measures that the NSC has been facilitating with the Nigeria Customs Service and other relevant agencies at the ports." [Nigeria, Djibouti to foster trade ties (ThisDay)]
REC updates: ECOWAS to mediate in Senegalese trucker boycott of Gambia (M&G Africa), Magufuli, Kagame: Two aces in the East African Community (Daily News)
Singapore’s approach to Africa: promising, but more to do (Eurasia Review)
According to IE Singapore, in 2013-2014 there were already more than 60 Singaporean companies operating in over 50 countries in Africa. Projects spanned a wide range of sectors from agri-business, food & beverage, and oil and gas, to eGovernment services, communications technology, and transport & logistics. While Singapore’s engagement in Africa is not as familiar as the common narrative around Chinese, American and European investment, the growing interest and seriousness is promising. Singapore also shares developmental experience with African countries under the Singapore Cooperation Programme, recently signing a memorandum of understanding with Rwanda in 2015. Moreover, the Singapore Ambassador to the African Union recently suggested that Ethiopia and Singapore “should consider signing a cultural cooperation agreement”.
TICAD-related: Japan's Africa ambitions (Al Jazeera), Dar, JICA ink 116bn/- ‘conducive business’ loan deal (Daily News)
Mozambique: The political economy of public expenditures in agriculture (IFPRI)
Agricultural public investments are more likely to be made that have two key features: higher attributability to politicians and donors of the output of public spending, and a shorter lag time between expenditures incurred and outputs produced. Evidence on geographical targeting of agricultural public funds corresponds more closely with theories suggesting that resources are used to sway communities opposed to the ruling party, rather than to reward political supporters. Examination of the effect of actors' and organisations' incentives and constraints on resource allocation in agriculture points to the importance of not treating “government,” “the ruling party” and other institutions as monolithic bodies; the paper instead highlights how differentiated interests within seemingly coherent institutions drive what gets public expenditure attention in the agricultural sector.
Large-scale agricultural investments and rural development in Tanzania: lessons learned, steering requirements and policy responses (DIE), Tanzania aims to surpass Brazil in sisal production (Business Day)]
Mozambique cell phone savings project: baseline survey (IFPRI)
Smallholder households in rural Mozambique are typically characterized by low agricultural productivity, which is in part caused by very low levels of usage of inputs. In the study area, in four districts of Nampula province, farmers are generally far from towns where agricultural input providers are based and formal banking services are available. In absence of these services, smallholders typically face liquidity constraints during the planting season when returns to input usage are the highest. In order to explore potential policy solutions to this challenge, the project combines training and incentives to use mobile money technology alongside targeted input marketing visits to promote formal saving strategies and increase take-up of basic inputs, primarily seeds and fertilizer.
Exporter Dynamics Database version 2.0: what does it reveal about the trade collapse? (World Bank Blogs)
The impacts of modern preferential trade agreements (NBER)
Trudi Makahaya: 'Reclaiming Africa’s history of economics' (Business Day)
President Zuma: South Africa's oceans economy initiative (GCIS)
Angolans, foreigners forbidden to leave Angola with more than $10000 (Club of Mozambique)
East African Employers Organization wants EA work permit fees removed (Arusha Times)
Malawi: consultancy services on the taxation of the informal sector (AfDB)
India-EU free trade impasse may end, says CII (The Hindu)
Lawrence Summers: 'The four most prominent candidates for President all oppose the principal free-trade initiative of this period: TPP'
Global migration revisited: short-term pains, long-term gains, and the potential of south-south migration (World Bank)
South-South cooperation: global force, uncertain identity (DIE)
Stockholm Declaration: ‘Addressing fragility and building peace in a changing world’
Early days, early opportunity: SDG projections for sub-Saharan Africa (Development Progress)
tralac’s Daily News archive
Catch up on tralac’s daily news selections by following this link ».
SUBSCRIBE
To receive the link to tralac’s Daily News Selection via email, click here to subscribe.
This post has been sourced on behalf of tralac and disseminated to enhance trade policy knowledge and debate. It is distributed to over 350 recipients across Africa and internationally, serving in the AU, RECS, national government trade departments and research and development agencies. Your feedback is most welcome. Any suggestions that our recipients might have of items for inclusion are most welcome.
