News
tralac’s Daily News Selection
The selection: Tuesday, 5 April 2016
Profiled trade and development policy conference alerts:
5-8 April, Kampala: COMESA Business Council training workshop 'Local Sourcing for Partnerships'
6-7 April, Dar es Salaam: REPOA’s 21st Annual Research Workshop 'Making industrialization work for socio-economic transformation'
7 April, Abidjan: FAO's regional conference for Africa, Ministerial Plenary. Access conference documentation.
7-8 April, Swakopmund: tralac’s Annual Conference 'Towards rules-based governance in African trade and integration?'
8-9 April, Victoria Falls: ACBF’s Third Africa Think Tank Summit
12-17 April, Washington: IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings
20 April, New York: The High-level Forum 'The Africa We Want in 2030, 2063 and Beyond'
Selected updates from #CoM2016:
Ha-Joon Chang's Annual Adedeji Lecture 2016: 'The industrialisation imperative: why does Africa (still) have to industrialise?'
Other #CoM2016 presentations can be accessed here.
Statement by Mr Carlos Lopes to the High Level Ministerial Segment of the Conference of Ministers (UNECA)
In 2016, with a barrel price of $30.8, Africa is going to earn $47.1bn less in trade surplus in 2016, relative to that in 2015. This difference is around 8% of the total value of Africa’s exports in 2014. While considerable, this is unlikely to change the development trajectory for the entire continent. The fall in oil prices is more likely to have large adverse impacts on the few African countries whose economy depends on oil exports. However, Governments can seize the opportunity offered by lower oil prices to scrape wasteful oil subsidies. IMF research shows that more than 40% of fuel price subsidies in developing countries accrue to the richest 20% of households, while only 7% of the benefits go to the poorest 20%. The volatility of most commodities excluding oil has been high in 2015, but, contrary to general belief, not far above historical trends. Uranium gold, coffee, cocoa or orange juice exported from Africa are experiencing record prices.
Luke Patey: 'Africa's petrostates are imploding' (Foreign Policy)
As growth in Africa’s petrostates fades, the persistent gains in the more robust economies of East Africa will increasingly attract the attention of multinational corporations and international investors in search of new opportunities. Overall, foreign direct investment in Africa fell by a third in 2015, but it continues to surge into sectors like telecommunications and financial services — and it is East Africa’s more diversified economies that are better positioned to cash in on rising private equity investment in these sectors.
African oil producers mull survival options amid low oil prices (ThisDay)
Eighteen African oil producing countries under the aegis the African Petroleum Producers Association have from their meeting at the last African Petroleum Congress and Exhibition (CAPE-VI) in Abuja, agreed to follow through 25 strategic goals they consider good enough to keep them up while the uncertainty in oil prices lasts.
Botswana: new trade policy framework (UNCTAD)
UNCTAD has been assisting Botswana to formulate a national trade policy framework, in order to make full use of the transformative power of trade for development. UNCTAD has committed to support the Government during the implementation period which is scheduled to start this year. To that end, UNCTAD has proposed a draft implementation matrix containing objectives, actions, and responsibilities and monitoring and evaluation mechanism. This proposal is being studied by the Government. The document was adopted by the Government and stakeholders at a workshop in Gaborone on 16 February 2016. The main recommendations of the TPF include the following:
Rwanda’s trade deficit widens, upsets earnings (The EastAfrican)
Rwanda’s economic managers face the daunting task of crafting new measures to bridge the ballooning trade deficit. The country continues to import more goods and services, eating up its narrow foreign-exchange earnings due to sluggish growth in exports. “If the current deficit becomes unsustainable, it will ultimately force the country’s currency to weaken; and if you have invested in the country, then obviously the value of your investment drops,” said Andre Roux, co-head of emerging market fixed income at Investec Asset Management Ltd, an asset management company based in South Africa and London. Mr Roux was in the country to attend a roundtable for the financial sector organised by the Rwanda Development Board. [More opportunity for investors as Rwanda financial services diversify (New Times)]
Rwanda targets $1.5bn in foreign investments (Bloomberg)
Foreign direct investment in Rwanda will probably rise 36% this year to $1.5bn, according to the East African nation’s development board. Projects financed by foreigners will rise from $1.1bn last year, Francis Gatare, chief executive officer of Rwanda Development Board, said in an interview on Thursday.
SA threatens to shut out Zim goods (The Zimbabwean)
South African manufacturers want their government to slap restrictions on Zimbabwean products in retaliation for measures by Harare to restrict imports from its southern neighbour. Bimha said he had to clarify to Davies that the measures were temporary and meant to resuscitate ailing industries that took a nosedive during the hyperinflation era back to competitiveness. “I had to explain to him that, the measures are not by choice but coming as a remedy to our industries that were affected by sanctions and the hyper-inflationary era,” said the [trade] minister. “So I informed him that we are only assisting local companies, in order for them to bounce back to productivity. After such a time, we will then open up our borders and the (local) manufacturers can compete with your products as before.” [SA considering emergency steel tariffs - WTO (IOL)]
Zambia: Oryx urges government to scrap import duty on LPG (The Post)
ORYX Energies says the government should consider scrapping the 25% import duty on liquefied petroleum gas because making the commodity available to the domestic market is difficult. And Oryx Energies managing director Dansel Sannigadu says the quality of LPG received from Indeni Petroleum Refinery has not been “up to scratch.”
Kenya’s China imports cross Sh300bn mark (Daily Nation)
China has become the first country to cross the Sh300 billion mark in exports to Kenya, underlying its growing economic significance in the country. The Asian nation’s exports to Kenya jumped 29 per cent to Sh320 billion last year compared to Sh248 billion a year earlier, according to Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) data. This saw Beijing overtake India as Nairobi’s largest source of goods, opening a Sh67 billion lead in sales over New Delhi, largely on account of import for Standard Gauge Railway. [Cabinet sets in motion process to new laws for mining sector]
Namibia: Budget lacks aggressiveness for energy sector infrastructure development (New Era)
The private sector continues to be reluctant to lend to an already debt-laden infrastructure sector due to government’s lack of bold financial pronouncements – as a result many large energy projects continue to be stuck. Government guarantees could improve the attractiveness of private funding in this regard. [The author, Mally Likukela, is Standard Bank Namibia’s Economic and Market Research Manager]
West African Economic and Monetary Union: selected issues paper (IMF)
This paper empirically assesses public investment efficiency in WAEMU, and highlights its main determinants. While the literature on public investment efficiency for advanced economies is vast, such studies have been limited for sub-Saharan African countries and in particular for the WAEMU. This note therefore first assesses the infrastructure gap in WAEMU based on the efficiency frontier analysis. It then identifies the determinants of public investment efficiency through panel regressions. A concluding section presents the main findings and the policy implications.
El Niño good boy or bad? (IMF)
But what are the macroeconomic effects of an average El Niño event? Our research - taking into account the economic interlinkages and spillovers between countries - analyzed the macroeconomic transmission of El Niño shocks between 1979 and 2013, both on national economies and internationally, focusing on its effects on real GDP, inflation, and commodity prices. The results indicate that El Niño has a large but highly varied economic impact across different regions. Australia, Chile, India, Indonesia, Japan, New Zealand, and South Africa face a short-lived fall in economic activity in response to a typical El Niño shock. However, in other parts of the world, an El Niño event actually improves growth, in some countries directly - for instance, in the United States -and in other countries - such as in Europe - indirectly through positive spillovers from major trading partners.
Emerging economies affect global financial changes (IMF)
The IMF analysis, part of the Global Financial Stability Report, finds that rising financial integration, more than emerging economies’ growing share of global GDP and trade, is the key factor behind their increasing financial impact on other countries. For example, while economic news from China does affect global equity returns, spillovers from Chinese asset price shocks remain limited relative to those of financially more integrated emerging market economies including Brazil, Mexico, and South Africa.
Africa and China's UNSC April presidency (UN)
Providing an overview of the 15-member Council’s forthcoming work, he [Liu Jieyi (China)] said it would hold 30 meetings, considering Syria, Yemen, the Middle East, South Sudan, Mali, Western Sahara, Côte d’Ivoire and the Central African Republic. The Council would hold an open debate on 25 April - co-sponsored by China, Angola and Senegal - on piracy in the Gulf of Guinea, a growing problem that was disrupting international trade. It would aim to focus international attention and generate support for regional countries in combating piracy, he said, adding that it was likely that a presidential statement would be issued.
Building regulatory policy systems in OECD countries: draft analytical paper (OECD)
The rich dataset provided by iREG is now publicly available, but has yet to be fully exploited. In particular, the iREG provides detailed insights into the practices of countries in carrying out Regulatory Impact Assessments (RIA), stakeholder engagement when developing regulations and ex post evaluation. This detailed knowledge provides new insights into the way regulatory policy is carried out by countries, notably whether practices in the three areas tend to be developed simultaneously or not and what priorities countries put on the respective areas of methodology, systematic adoption, transparency and oversight.
The Africa Evidence Network invites submissions for its EVIDENCE 2016 conference.
Kenyans spent Sh117.6bn on imported cars last year (Business Daily)
Malawi government to support two development banks (Maravi Post)
Tuna and Gunships: how $850m in bonds went bad in Mozambique (Wall Street Journal)
RCM-Africa Plenary session: ILO input
Second Regional Technical Meeting on Health, Gender and Capital Projects in Africa: meeting report (AfDB)
Africa Energy Indaba: conference proceedings
World Humanitarian Summit must usher in new era of global solidarity (UN)
tralac’s Daily News archive
Catch up on tralac’s daily news selections by following this link ».
SUBSCRIBE
To receive the link to tralac’s Daily News Selection via email, click here to subscribe.
This post has been sourced on behalf of tralac and disseminated to enhance trade policy knowledge and debate. It is distributed to over 350 recipients across Africa and internationally, serving in the AU, RECS, national government trade departments and research and development agencies. Your feedback is most welcome. Any suggestions that our recipients might have of items for inclusion are most welcome.
