South Africa’s trade balance swings to a deficit R17.87 billion ($1 billion) in January from a revised R7.56 billion surplus in December, the national revenue agency said on Monday.

Exports were down by 18.8% to R71.5 billion on a month-on-month basis, while imports rose by 11% to R89 billion on a month-on-month basis, the South African Revenue Service said in a statement.

The consensus for the trade deficit was R14.10 billion.

In a flash comment, Nedbank’s Economic Unit said: “A large deficit is usual in January as imports recover from the slowdown during the December break and exports struggle from low production over the festive season.

“The performance of exports during 2016 will remain largely dependent on the recovery of commodity prices as well the improved competitiveness of manufactured exports following significant currency weakness, although softer global demand will constrain growth. However, any disruptions to domestic production, from power shortages to labour instability, would inhibit the recovery.

“On the import side, low international oil prices will continue to keep the oil import down, while machinery purchases will continue to moderate as some of the major infrastructure projects near completion. A sharp rise in agricultural imports is likely due to the drought.

“The trade figures are volatile and have no direct impact on monetary policy,” stated Nedbank.

The South African Revenue Service (SARS) has released trade statistics for January 2016 that recorded a trade deficit of R17.87 billion. This figure includes trade data with Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland (BLNS).

Including trade data with Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland (BLNS)

The R17.87 billion deficit for January 2016 is due to exports of R71.50 billion and imports of R89.37 billion. Exports decreased from December 2015 to January 2016 by R16.57 billion (18.8%) and imports increased from December 2015 to January 2016 by R8.86 billion (11.0%).

The R17.87 billion deficit is a 23.7% decrease on the deficit recorded in January 2015 of R23.43 billion. Exports of R71.50 billion are 5.4% more than the exports recorded in January 2015 of R67.82 billion. Imports of R89.37 billion are 2.1% less than the imports recorded in January 2015 of R91.25 billion.

The month of December 2015 trade balance surplus was revised downwards by R0.66 billion from the previous month’s preliminary surplus of R8.22 billion to a revised surplus of R7.56 billion.

Trade highlights by category

The month-on-month export movements (R’ million):

The month-on-month import movements (R’ million):

Trade highlights by world zone

The world zone results from December 2015 to January 2016 are given below.

Africa:

Trade surplus: R11 848 million – This is a 14.1% decrease in comparison to the R13 798 million surplus recorded in December 2015.

America:

Trade deficit: R3 587 million – This is an 89.4% increase in comparison to the R1 894 million deficit recorded in December 2015.

Asia:

Trade deficit: R17 748 million – This is a deterioration in comparison to the R6 698 million deficit recorded in December 2015.

Europe:

Trade deficit: R12 568 million – This is a deterioration in comparison to the R5 662 million deficit recorded in December 2015.

Oceania:

Trade deficit: R 285 million – This is a deterioration in comparison to the R 49 million surplus recorded in December 2015.

Excluding trade data with Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland (BLNS)

The trade data excluding BLNS for January 2016 recorded a trade deficit of R25.49 billion, with exports of R61.31 billion and imports of R86.80 billion. Exports decreased from December 2015 to January 2016 by R16.32 billion (21.0%) and imports increased from December 2015 to January 2016 by R8.49 billion (10.8%).

The cumulative deficit for 2016 is R25.49 billion compared to R30.49 billion in 2015.

Trade highlights by category

The month-on-month export movements (R’ million):

The month-on-month import movements (R’ million):

Trade highlights by world zone

The world zone results other than Africa from December 2015 to January 2016 are given above.

Africa:

Trade surplus: R4 230 million – This is a 23.8% decrease in comparison to the R5 554 million surplus recorded in December 2015.

Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland (Only)

Trade statistics with the BLNS for January 2016 recorded a trade surplus of R7.62 billion, a result of exports of R10.19 billion and imports of R2.58 billion.

Exports decreased from December 2015 to January 2016 by R0.26 billion (2.5%) and imports increased from December 2015 to January 2016 by R0.37 billion (16.7%).

The cumulative surplus for 2016 is R7.62 billion compared to R7.06 billion in 2015.

Trade Highlights by Category

The month-on-month export movements (R’ million):

The month-on-month import movements (R’ million):