The selection: Thursday, 10 December

WTO report finds no acceleration in trade restrictions but slow pace for barrier removal

During the period under review, the rate at which new trade-restrictive measures were introduced was stable at roughly 15 new measures per month, comparable to the previous period. Members also implemented 222 new trade-facilitating measures over this period or an average of almost 19 measures per month, the second-highest number since the beginning of the monitoring exercise in 2008. Nevertheless, only 25% of the restrictive measures recorded since October 2008 have been eliminated. Thus, the stockpile of restrictions has now risen to 2,557 as of October 2015, up 17% from the previous period. [Download]

MC10: Briefing note on cotton negotiations (WTO)

State of Agricultural Commodity Markets (FAO)

This edition of The State of Agricultural Commodity Markets aims to reduce the current polarization of views on the impacts of agricultural trade on food security and on the manner in which agricultural trade should be governed to ensure that increased trade openness is beneficial to all countries. By providing evidence and clarity on a range of topics, the report seeks to contribute to a more informed debate on policy choices and to identify required improvements in the policy processes within which these choices are made. Eight key messages: [Download the report, background papers, technical notes]

Book alert: Growth and poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa (UNU-WIDER)

The book includes 16 country case studies which collectively represent nearly three-quarters of the sub-Saharan African population. Contributions from local and international experts identify and explain trends in monetary and non-monetary poverty and their links to growth. [The editors: Channing Arndt, Andrew McKay, Finn Tarp] [Some chapters available as working paper downloads]

Zambia Economic Brief: Powering the Zambian economy (World Bank)

These external and domestic challenges, will affect GDP growth which is expected to be 3 to 3.5% in 2016, before bouncing back to potential of 5 to 6% by 2018 as copper prices stabilize and domestic pressures ease. Strengthening the fiscal position and restoring fiscal buffers will be necessary to increase confidence in the economy, reduce the need for costly borrowing and build resilience against further exogenous shocks. The power sector is pivotal to Zambia’s growth in the future. Zambia’s economy has expanded by an average of 6.4% and 7.4% over the last decade increasing the demand for electricity. The prospect of solar and thermal generation in the next few years will help diversify Zambia’s power generation to complement its hydro resources.

Nigeria Economic Report: Special Edition 2015 (AfDB)

Nigeria faces several challenges that limit its ability to deploy PPP as a strategy for infrastructure development. These include: weak regulatory and enforcement powers of ICRC; limited capacity to drive PPP process in Nigeria; weak capacity of MDAs in project preparation through thorough financial, economic and risk analysis; poor negotiation skills; poor planning and coordination between public and private partners involved in PPP projects; risks on return on investment for prospective private sector partner; existence of weak long-term finance for infrastructure; mismatch between PPP transaction life cycle and national budget cycle; and weak cooperation and collaboration among MDAs on PPP-related activities. To evolve an effective PPP strategy for infrastructure development, the following policy actions are imperative:

NCIP: Uhuru Kenyatta in Rwanda for integration summit (Daily Nation)

President Uhuru Kenyatta arrived in Kigali, Rwanda Thursday morning to attend the 12th Northern Corridor Integration Projects Summit. The NCIP Summit will review the progress in the 14 earmarked projects, emerging issues, challenges as well as the way forward. Among the observers present at the summit include, Burundi, Ethiopia, DR Congo, Tanzania and Djibouti. The summit will also see the regional private sector present a memorandum of understanding that will guide their engagement with governments in the implementation of the earmarked projects.

Burundi's political and security crisis: submissions to the US Senate's subcommittee on Africa and Global Health Policy hearing

COMESA’s policy organs meeting closes (COMESA)

The 35th COMESA Policy organs meetings ended on Tuesday with the adoption of the report of the Council of Ministers. The report which contains major policy decisions will guide the implementation of regional integration programmes for the Member States and the Secretariat, in the year 2016.

ECOWAS ministers call for more budgetary allocation to water sector

The ministers adopted 17 resolutions including the consideration of the report of the 10th session of the IWRM Technical Experts’ Committee. Desirous of enhancing the current water resources situation in the region, the ministers also adopted a resolution on the Implementation Action Plan of West Africa’s Water Resources Policy as well as on capacity building of the Water Resources Coordination Centre. In this regard, they called for the implementation of an institutional study for a structural reform of the WRCC including the need to strengthen it in partnership with research structures and degree training centres.

President Edgar Lundu: 'Zambia-South Africa business council to benefit all' (Daily Mail)

The Zambia-South Africa Business Council will be expected to act as a business information portal on trade and investment, particularly in providing information on export and investment opportunities existing in the two countries. The business council is further expected to facilitate interactions and also provide information on regulatory, labour and immigration issues. It is in this regard that I appeal to the business council to promote my Government’s agenda of fostering inclusive business models that ensure integrating local communities in the supply chains and support the growth of local industries in all sectors of the economy.

Tanzania: Shilling gains on strong dollar inflows from exports (Daily News)

The shilling gained on the back of strong US dollars inflows from agro-exports when the public was celebrating Uhuru Day by cleaning their surroundings yesterday. The Bank of Tanzania data showed that the shilling depreciated from 1,723/- in January to 2,175/- of Tuesday but hopes are lingering since the coming to power of President, John Magufuli a month ago. The shilling has gone down by some 20% since the beginning of this year, as demand from importers continued to outpace foreign currencies inflow. The shilling appreciation came at a time the inflation in November gone up by 0.3 percentage point to 6.6 per cent pushed by raising food prices.

DRC loses up to $15bn per year to fraud - official (Reuters)

Luzolo Bambi, a counselor to President Joseph Kabila on graft and money laundering, did not give any specifics during an interview with local radio but said corruption existed at some of the highest levels of government.

Zimbabwe: ‘High taxes hinder economic growth’ (The Herald)

Government should reduce taxes and licensing fees as part of the process of internal devaluation in order to improve the ease of doing business and to enhance competitiveness of local industry in the country. Competition and Tariff Commission chairman Dumisani Sibanda told a Confederation of Zimbabwe Industries symposium on internal devaluation yesterday that Government should urgently align its pricing structure to affordability.

Trade, tourism boost aviation traffic between Uganda, SA (Daily Monitor)

Trade statistics from Bank of Uganda indicate that trade between South Africa and Uganda as of 2014 was valued at $253m (Shs836b), up from $233m (Shs770b) in 2013. The trade, however, remains largely one sided as Uganda imported goods worth $244m (Shs806b) in 2014 up from $226m (Shs747b) in 2013. However, Uganda only exported goods worth $9m (Shs30b) in 2014, up from $7.3m (Shs24b) in 2013.

The urgent need to expand and improve Africa’s ports to meet rising demand (AfDB)

“Port capacity and logistics cannot handle the increasing traffic across most of Africa, causing congestion,” said Admou Saley Abdourahamane, the Secretary General of Union of African Shippers Council. His organization represents 18 countries in Central and West Africa. He added that the congestion was due to factors such as deficient physical infrastructure (inadequate capacity particularly in terminal storage and maintenance), weak regulatory systems and poor management, all which amounted to poor port efficiency. This has led to high trading costs in Africa. “What this situation does is to contribute to the marginalization of the continent from international markets,” noted Abdourahamane. Africa has 66 ports, 28 of them in West Africa.

Ghana: Shippers discuss trade barriers (Ghana Times)

Does firm size matter for productivity?: the case of informal firms in Africa (World Bank Blogs)

We explored the relationship between size and productivity of informal firms using surveys of informal or unregistered firms conducted by the World Bank’s Enterprise Surveys (ES) in seven countries in Africa between 2009 and 2011. The countries covered (survey year in brackets) are Angola (2010), Botswana (2010), Burkina Faso (2009), Cameroon (2009), Cabo Verde (2009), Mali (2010) and Rwanda (2011). In the sample, approximately 28 percent of firms have a single employee, 21 percent have 2 employees, 15.3 percent have 3 employees, 11.8 percent have 4 employees, and the remaining 23.9 percent have 5 to 25 employees.

Africa Facility for Climate-Resilient Investment: update (World Bank)

The World Bank’s Senior Regional Advisor for the African Region, Jamal Saghir, promises it will be a knowledge hub for decision makers and “a different way for us at the World Bank to do financing.” With a fundraising target of US $50 million by 2020, the new facility hopes to spur more climate-smart investments and lead the way to a more climate-resilient future for this continent that is home to more than one billion people.

When the tide goes out: capital flows and financial shocks in emerging markets (UNCTAD)

What does this suggest about the economic prospects in emerging economies? With economic activity slowing sharply and surveys of private sector companies now indicating contraction even for manufacturing sectors, the omens are not good. Predicting where the next crisis will be is best left to those with a more speculative bent, but the emerging corporate debt market, where there are already strong indications that the leverage ratio in several countries has reached the peak seen in developed countries just before the 2008 crisis, needs to be carefully monitored. If history is any guide, and as the current situation in Europe illustrates, a prolonged shock to that market could quickly lead to sovereign debt crises.

Public debt vulnerabilities in low-income countries: the evolving landscape (IMF)

This is the first joint IMF/World Bank report on public debt vulnerabilities in low income countries. It examines debt-related developments and their underlying causes since the onset of the global financial crisis. The findings will inform the upcoming review of the IMF/WB debt sustainability framework for LICs.

Taylor visits Africa (IMF)

Estimations of small-scale models for Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania suggest that these self-styled "monetary targeters" are respecting the Taylor Principle, that is are on average increasing nominal interest rates more than proportionally to inflation. Nevertheless, steep deviations from the Taylor Rule have taken place in Kenya and Tanzania. In Uganda, these errors are much smaller, in fact similar in size to Taylor Rule deviations found for Brazil. More surprisingly, they are smaller than South Africa’s, the continent’s sole long-term inflation targeter.

Mozambique: Strategic plan for tourism development 2015/2024 (Club of Mozambique)

Kenya: New law to ensure firms are fined 10% of turnover if they engage in price fixing (Daily Nation)

East Africa: Regional tea sales grow by 6.4% (Daily Monitor)

Rwanda: Nyagatare-Rukomo road project gets Rwf11bn Kuwaiti funding (New Times)

Ethiopia: Maternal and child health inequalities (World Bank)

Italy's foreign trade: focus on Africa, Iran and ASEAN countries (Antara)

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This post has been sourced on behalf of tralac and disseminated to enhance trade policy knowledge and debate. It is distributed to over 300 recipients across Africa and internationally, serving in the AU, RECS, national government trade departments and research and development agencies. Your feedback is most welcome. Any suggestions that our recipients might have of items for inclusion are most welcome. Richard Humphries (Email: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.; Twitter: @richardhumphri1)