South Africa’s trade balance swings to surplus in February

South Africa’s trade balance shifted to R0.43 billion surplus in February of 2018, compared to a downwardly revised R27.1 billion deficit in the prior month, and above market consensus of a R3.0 billion deficit. It was the smallest trade surplus since November of 2015. 

Imports declined 16.5 percent month-over-month to R90.2 billion in February of 2018, mainly due to lower purchases of machinery and electronics (-25 percent); mineral products (-16 percent); vehicles and transport equipment (-17 percent); chemical products (-12 percent); base metals (-24 percent) and original equipment components (-13 percent). The most important import partners were: China (18.6 percent of total imports), Germany (10.8 percent), the US (5.5 percent), Saudi Arabia (5.3 percent) and Nigeria (4.9 percent).

Exports rose 12.0 percent month-over-month to R90.6 billion, mostly due to higher sales of vehicles and transport equipment (117 percent); precious metals and stones (14 percent); machinery and electronics (25 percent) and prepared foodstuff (18 percent). Main export partners were: China (9.3 percent of total exports); Germany (7.7 percent); the US (6.4 percent); Japan (4.8 percent) and Botswana (4.6 percent).

Excluding trade with neighboring Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland, the country posted a trade deficit of R6.6 billion in February.

The South African Revenue Service (SARS) today released trade statistics for February 2018 recording a trade balance surplus of R0.43 billion. These statistics include trade data with Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland (BLNS).

The year-to-date (01 January to 28 February 2018) trade balance deficit of R26.69 billion is a deterioration on the deficit for the comparable period in 2017 of R7.59 billion. Exports year-to-date grew by 3.1% whilst imports for the same period showed an increase of 14.0%.

In line with international statistical best practice, the Trade Statistics published by the SARS are subject to revisions as new information becomes available on an ongoing basis. The January 2013 to January 2018 export figures have been adjusted by R16.67 billion resulting in the revision of the trade balance for the affected years as shown in the table below.

The R16.67 billion adjustment is as a result of revisions to the gold exports by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), which supplies the gold export data to SARS. These gold revisions have been published by the SARB in the March 2018 Quarterly Bulletin.

Cumulative Trade Balance after SARB adjustments

Including trade data with Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland (BLNS)

The R0.43 billion trade balance surplus for February 2018 is attributable to exports of R90.59 billion and imports of R90.16 billion. Exports increased from January 2018 to February 2018 by R9.74 billion (12.0%) and imports decreased from January 2018 to February 2018 by R17.82 billion (16.5%).

Exports for the year-to-date (01 January to 28 February) grew by 3.1% from R166.28 billion in 2017 to R171.45 billion in 2018. Imports for the year-to-date of R198.14 billion are 14.0% more than the imports recorded in January to February 2017 of R173.88 billion, leaving a cumulative trade balance deficit of R26.69 billion for 2018.

On a year-on-year basis, the R0.43 billion trade balance surplus for February 2018 is a deterioration from the surplus recorded in February 2017 of R4.12 billion. Exports of R90.59 billion are 4.6% more than the exports recorded in February 2017 of R86.58 billion. Imports of R90.16 billion are 9.3% more than the imports recorded in February 2017 of R82.46 billion.

January 2018’s trade balance deficit was revised downwards by R0.54 billion from the previous month’s preliminary deficit of R27.66 billion to a revised deficit of R27.12 billion as a result of ongoing Vouchers of Correction (VOC’s).

Trade highlights by category

Trade highlights by world zone

The world zone results from January 2018 (revised) to February 2018 are given below.

Africa:

Trade Balance surplus: R15 074 million – this is an improvement of R5 800 million in comparison to the R9 274 million surplus recorded in January 2018.

America:

Trade Balance deficit: R 528 million – this is an improvement of R1 655 million in comparison to the R2 183 million deficit recorded in January 2018.

Asia:

Trade Balance deficit: R14 303 million – this is an improvement of R10 442 million in comparison to the R24 745 million deficit recorded in January 2018.

Europe:

Trade Balance deficit: R6 951 million – this is an improvement of R8 671 million in comparison to the R15 622 million deficit recorded in January 2018.

Oceania:

Trade Balance deficit: R 107 million – this is an improvement of R 955 million in comparison to the R1 062 million deficit recorded in January 2018.

Excluding trade data with Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland (BLNS)

The trade data excluding BLNS for February 2018 recorded a trade balance deficit of R6.69 billion. This is a result of exports of R80.09 billion and imports of R86.78 billion.

Exports increased from January 2018 to February 2018 by R8.31 billion (11.6%) and imports decreased from January 2018 to February 2018 by R18.29 billion (17.4%).

The cumulative deficit for 2018 is R39.98 billion compared to R20.45 billion deficit in 2017.

Trade highlights by category

Trade highlights by world zone

The world zone results for Africa excluding BLNS from January 2018 (Revised) to February 2018 are given below.

Africa:

Trade Balance surplus: R7 955 million – this is an improvement of R4 848 million in comparison to the R3 107 million surplus recorded in January 2018.

Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland (Only)

Trade statistics with the BLNS for February 2018 recorded a trade balance surplus of R7.12 billion. This is a result of exports of R10.50 billion and imports of R3.38 billion.

Exports increased from January 2018 to February 2018 by R1.43 billion (15.8%) and imports increased from January 2018 to February 2018 by R0.48 billion (16.4%).

The cumulative surplus for 2018 is R13.29 billion compared to R12.86 billion in 2017.

Trade Highlights by Category