News
tralac’s Daily News Selection
The selection: Wednesday, 7 December 2016
From the 11th African Economic Conference: access the 47 papers, presentations on the theme ‘Towards agro-allied industrialization for inclusive growth’
ABCA 2017 call for papers: The challenges and opportunities of transforming African agriculture
Tomorrow: in Harare, Zimbabwe’s 2017 national budget will be presented; in Kuala Lumpur, International trade and non-convergence trap for middle-income countries seminar
Implementing gender-aware ex ante evaluations to maximize the benefits of trade reforms for women (pdf, UNCTAD)
The relationship between trade policies and gender is complex, and there is no clear-cut evidence on the effects of trade liberalization on women. Liberalization can be instrumental in providing new opportunities for women, yet may also, in certain cases, contribute to exacerbating existing gender biases and discrimination. This policy brief aims to provide stakeholders with an understanding of the scope of ex ante evaluations, and to provide practitioners with an overview of the different approaches available.
EAC cross-border trade: Traders told to learn rule of game (Daily News)
Traders in the East African Community should understand the rule of game in the regional cross-border trade, a trade technocrat has advised as millers in Kenya complain about zero rated wheat flour imports from Tanzania. EABC Trade Economist, Mr Adrian Njau, said in a telephone interview from Arusha yesterday that most traders were uninformed of their rights stated on the EAC treaties. [Kenyan millers protest Tanzania’s tax-free wheat flour]
The Brazzaville Declaration: Central African States adopt model cross-border laws on cyber security (UNECA)
Accordingly, it is in December 2016 that the Ministers of Posts and telecommunications of ECCAS member states adopted these laws and drafted a declaration dubbed ‘The Brazzaville Declaration’. One of the recommendations of the declaration urges the ECA to support the ECCAS Secretariat General in (i) developing a roaming frame of reference in the Central Africa sub-region and (ii) in establishing mechanisms for the monitoring and evaluation of the level of adaptation of legislative and regulatory frameworks.
Sub-Regional Coordination Mechanism for Eastern and Southern Africa: Migration to Europe a result of failed development policies in Africa (EAC)
The EAC Deputy Secretary General in charge of Infrastructure and Planning, Dr Enos Bukuku, said that poverty-stricken refugees were willing to risk their precious lives to cross the Mediterranean and face other risks knowing they could get a better life in Europe. Dr Bukuku said the migration provides an opportunity for African leaders, elites and governments to ask themselves pertinent questions on why the continent continues to score poorly on all development indicators. Among the RECs and IGOs represented at the meeting in Arusha are the EAC, SADC and the Indian Ocean Commission. Other organizations with representatives at the meeting are the AU, UNDP, ILO, IOM, NEPAD, and the Port Management Association for Eastern and Southern Africa. [UNECA media release]
Selected SGR updates: Kenya and Uganda officials to sign joint SGR financing pact in Beijing, George Omondi: SGR could help East Africa achieve free trade dreams (Business Daily)
Zambia Economic Brief: Raising revenue for economic recovery (World Bank)
The services sector has been an important driver of growth over the past ten years, and the greatest contributor to national income. The sector has struggled in 2016 following increased costs of borrowing, the electricity crisis, and slower consumption growth combined with high inflation. For example, the wholesale and retail trade sector contributes 40% to the services sector’s output, but has experienced a decline in sales in 2016. A recent monetary policy update by the Bank of Zambia (BoZ) suggests that consumer spending declined by 6% in Q3 2016 on account of tight credit conditions. Growth of the financial sector has been constrained by a tight monetary policy. Similarly, the transport sector declined following weak economic performance across other sectors of the economy. The kwacha has continued to fluctuate against its major trading currencies, but was stronger and less volatile in the first nine months of 2016 compared to 2015 (figure 7). Between January and end-November 2016, the kwacha has appreciated by 10.4% against the US$, 13.2% against the Euro, and 2.1% against the South African Rand. Four factors have contributed to the strengthening and relative stability of the kwacha.
Botswana: State of the Nation Address 2016
Despite initially optimistic projections, our domestic economy last year ended up with a negative growth of 0.3%, having been driven down by a 19.7% decline in mineral revenues linked to weaker global demand, aggravated by drought and the challenges we experienced in our water and energy sectors. We anticipate an overall domestic growth rate of 3.5% for this year and 4.1% in 2017. In this respect, while the liquidation of the BCL Group of companies will continue to have economic and social implications, particularly in the area of employment, it is anticipated that it will have limited direct impact in terms of our exports, government revenues and overall growth. Government shall, nonetheless, continue to closely monitor developments with respect to the BCL liquidation process with the view of updating our macroeconomic projections as may be necessary. Given the difficulties facing the mineral sector, domestic growth is expected to once more be driven by the non-mining sectors, more especially in Trade, Hotels and Restaurants (6.8%), Transport and Communication (6.1%) and Finance and Business Services (4.0%).
Zimbabwe: Diamond output declines 62% (The Herald)
Production of the precious mineral totalled 3,2 million carats in 2015, but has been negatively impacted this year by ongoing court cases where two miners are objecting to consolidation of the industry. Giving oral evidence before the Parliamentary Portfolio Committee on Mines and Energy yesterday, Mines and Mining Development Minister Chidhakwa said diamond production this year was severely affected by resistance to consolidation, which saw some mining companies challenging the decision in the courts.
Namibia’s credit rating revised to negative (The Namibian)
Moody’s has revised Namibia’s credit risk outlook from stable to negative, while affirming the country’s long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings. The ratings agency announced this on Friday, saying that the decision to revise the credit risk outlook was based on Namibia’s poor policies to reduce the deficits and accumulated debt stock. They also said that Namibia’s public debt has continued to rise, and that there are chances that the economy could slide further when the government tightens domestic funding conditions. The credit agency added that while the government is committed to ambitious policies, these plans will face challenges from continued upward pressures on the public wage bill, uncertainty surrounding future Southern African Customs Union revenues and an external environment characterised by low growth.
Tanzania: Magufuli orders removal of top mining firm from gold field (IPPMedia)
The mineral prospecting area in question is located in Shinyanga Region and licenced to Pangea Minerals Limited, a subsidiary of Acacia Mining Plc (formerly Barrick Tanzania) which owns three gold-producing mines in the country - Bulyanhulu, North Mara and Buzwagi. The president yesterday chided the ministry for ordering the removal of artisanal miners from the Mwakitolyo area and reversed the decision, saying it is the mining giant that should be removed instead. "How do you kick out more than 5,000 people in favour of just one investor? This is unacceptable and it doesn’t even make sense," Magufuli said at State House in Dar es Salaam. He ordered Vice President Samia Suluhu Hassan to ensure his instructions are implemented and Pangea Minerals’ prospecting licence is cancelled forthwith.
Officials from 10 West African countries arrive for unprecedented visit to Israel (Jerusalem Post)
Aiming to adapt Israeli farming expertise to their environments back home, the delegates were taking part in the first-ever Economic Community of West African States seminar held outside of West Africa. The three-day conference, titled “Enhancing Sustainable Agricultural Productivity in Arid and Semi-arid Regions: The Israeli Development Experience,” is a collaboration between ECOWAS and the Foreign Ministry’s MASHAV (Hebrew acronym for Israel’s Agency for International Development Cooperation), along with the Agriculture Ministry’s CINADCO: The Center for International Agricultural Development Cooperation.
Expressing its deep concern over the humanitarian situation and persistent violence in eastern DRC, particularly in North Kivu, the Council called on the Government to take further action, with the support of United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the DRC (MONUSCO), to end the threat posed by the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), the Forces démocratique de libération du Rwanda (FDLR) and all other armed groups operating in the country. It urged MONUSCO to fully implement its protection-of-civilians mandate, including in response to ongoing security threats.
CPI bias and its implications for poverty reduction in Africa (World Bank)
International poverty estimates for countries in Africa commonly rely on national consumer price indexes to adjust trends in nominal consumption over time for changes in the cost of living. However, the consumer price index is subject to various types of measurement bias. This paper uses Engel curve estimations to assess bias in the consumer price index and its implications for estimated poverty trends. The results suggest that in 11 of 16 Sub-Saharan African countries in this study, poverty reduction may be understated because of consumer price index bias. With correction of consumer price index bias, poverty in these countries could fall between 0.8 and 5.7 percentage points per year faster than currently thought. For two countries, however, the paper finds the opposite trend.
Mining and economic development: did China’s WTO accession affect African local economic development? (World Bank)
This paper investigates China’s influence on local economic development in 37 African countries between 1997 and 2007. The analysis compares the average changes in economic growth, migration, spatial inequality, and welfare for mineral-rich districts, pre- and post-accession, to the corresponding changes in districts without any mineral endowment. Using this exogenous variation, the paper shows that over 2002-07, mining activities in response to the global commodity price boom increased welfare as measured by spatial Sen Index but were insignificant for local economic growth, migration, and spatial inequality. The findings suggest that policy needs to do more to improve the local benefits of positive external shocks (such as China’s World Trade Organization accession): it is not enough to assume, given Africa’s high spatial inequality, that local economies will automatically benefit from higher national growth. [The analysts: Tony Addison, Amadou Boly, Anthony Francis Mveyange]
Sovereign wealth funds and long-term investments in Sub-Saharan Africa (World Bank)
In this paper, we theoretically and empirically analyze SWF investments in Africa. Since SWF activities remain minimal in Africa, the question is what would it take for SWFs to contribute more to long-term financing of development in Africa? [Second], we find empirically using a database of 26 SWF investments in Africa over the period 1985-2013 that: (i) about half of SWF investments in Africa are commodity-fueled funds, which raises some concerns given the end of the commodity super-cycle; (ii) Real Estate and Hotels are the most popular sector for SWFs in Africa, totaling 42 percent of investment, while only 10% of their investments are in infrastructure; (iii) SWFs that invest in Africa mainly originate from Asia, and Africa is the region that received the smallest share of SWF investments.
11th annual United Nations Internet Governance Forum opens (UN)
Each year, the UN convenes the IGF meeting, through the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, to unify various stakeholders and discuss Internet governance issues, as well as opportunities and challenges in an open, inclusive and transparent forum. This year’s theme – Enabling Inclusive and Sustainable Growth – aims to explore the ability of the Internet to foster development in sustainable and inclusive ways.
Philip Hammond travels to South Africa for post-Brexit trade
Mozambique: Cashew exports may bring tax revenues of $33m
Mauritius, South Africa to deepen collaboration in various economic spheres
Tanzania: Report backs cement firms’ outcry on coal
Kenya: House budget office faults Treasury growth forecasts
Kenya starts talks on direct flights between Nairobi, Latin America
Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa: keynote address at Nelson Mandela Memorial Dialogue
Mediterranean Basin: an assessment of economic cooperation
DAC Temporary Working Group on Refugees and Migration: draft agenda (19 December, OECD)
