The selection: Tuesday, 6 December 2016

Profiled trade and development conferences now underway:

In Addis Ababa, the Fourth Africa-Korea Forum. The Forum will review the implementation of the 2013-2015 plan of action and adopt the 2017-2022 Africa-Korea Forum Framework for Cooperation.

In Abuja, the African Economic Conference opened yesterday (with keynote speeches by Dr Akinwumi Adesina (AfDB), Mr Abdoulaye Mar Dieye (UNDP), Dr Abdalla Hamdok (UNECA))

In Libreville: Conclave to revitalise UN’s support to AU/NEPAD programme in Central Africa

In Geneva, UNCTAD’s Trade and Development Board, sixty-third session

ECOWAS, AU Summit previews:

The ECOWAS Heads of State and Government Summit will take place later this month in Abuja.

January’s AU Summit, on the theme Harnessing demographic dividend through investments in the youth. Summit segments: 23-25 January (Permanent Representatives’ Committee), 26-28 January (Executive Council), 30-31 January (Assembly). An ISS preview.

Zambia: Preview of the forthcoming Jobs Diagnostics, Value Chain Analysis reports (World Bank)

The World Bank Jobs Group’s Zambia team recently met with government, private sector, development partners and civil society representatives to share the work it has been doing on jobs diagnostics and value chain analysis, and consult on the preparation of an action plan for jobs based on these analytical pieces. Based on the analytical work, the team proposed a preliminary Jobs Action Plan to help increase the number of formal jobs, improve the quality of informal jobs, and extend access to jobs for vulnerable groups, including youth and women. To do this, the team focused on three types of policies:

Fifth Ethiopia Economic Update: Wages and employment in a crowded labor market (World Bank)

Ethiopia’s medium-term economic growth is unlikely to be affected by the recent drought and the country should be able to sustain the growth momentum, the update says. The report highlights the government’s investments in key areas, including the Addis Ababa-Djibouti railway line, the launch of new industrial parks and the power sector, which are also expected to increase export performance and contribute to economic growth in the short- to medium-term. However, the report warns that if the performance of the industry and service sectors do not live up to expectations, it could negatively affect the growth. Additionally, the report notes the current unrest in the country could also pose potential risks to the country’s economic outlook. The report also predicts further poverty reduction; based on data on the impact of growth on poverty reduction in the country in the past decade, the report estimates that the proportion of households living below the international poverty line of $1.90 per day will decline from 27.2% in 2015 to 24.6% in 2018. For Ethiopia to sustain economic growth, reduce poverty and make its structural change more inclusive, the report recommends:

South Africa: Gross Domestic Product, 3rd Quarter 2016 (StatsSA)

South Africa’s GDP growth rate was 0,2% in the third quarter of 2016. The main contributors to the GDP growth rate were the mining and quarrying industry; finance, real estate and business services; and general government services. Mining and quarrying increased by 5,1%, largely as a result of higher production in the mining of ‘other’ metal ores, in particular iron ore. Four industries contracted in the third quarter, namely agriculture, forestry and fishing (-0,3%); manufacturing (-3,2%); electricity, gas and water (-2,9%); and trade, catering and accommodation (-2,1%). The agriculture, forestry and fishing industry has been in decline for seven consecutive quarters. [Download full report (pdf)]

Brexit and Commonwealth Trade (pdf, Commonwealth Secretariat)

It is worth pointing out that, currently, close to three-quarters of intra-Commonwealth goods exports come from developing country members. As these countries expand their overall trading and productive capacity, they will be able to exploit the Commonwealth effect further. Indeed, the nature of the Commonwealth advantage is such that, for example, even when the source of investment in a Commonwealth member is a non-Commonwealth state the recipient Commonwealth member can utilise the inherent advantage in generating additional intra-Commonwealth trade, given to its expanded economic activities resulting from the new investment. Similarly, improved trade facilitation measures to deal with cumbersome and costly administrative and cross-border movement of goods and services can also be helpful. [Richard Gibb: The impact of Brexit on South Africa]

SADC Trade Related Facility: approvals update (pdf, SADC)

Over the period August to November 2016, 14 project applications were submitted for a technical evaluation and approval process involving the SADC Secretariat and the TRF Steering Committee. The TRF is supported under the SADC-EU Contribution Agreement. The status of project approvals is:

COMESA: New Great Lakes Trade Facilitation Project rolls out

The implementation of the Great Lakes Trade Facilitation Project (GLTFP) has begun in earnest with the launching of recruitment for Trade Information Officers to be based at selected locations in the eastern borderlands of the DRC, Rwanda and Uganda. A total of 20 additional TID Officers will be recruited to complement the existing capacity as well as for the new desks that will be identified through the on-going assessment mission mounted by the COMESA Secretariat in the Great Lakes region. The new desks are expected to be at Mahagi in DRC and Goli in Uganda and Bukavu (DRC) and Rusizi (Rwanda) border regions. The new Trade Information Desk Officers will help traders apply the COMESA Simplified Trade Regime.

EAC stock markets integration for June 2017 (New Times)

Speaking at the end of a two-day EASEA meeting in Kigali, Rwabukumba said the exchanges are focusing on fast-tracking regional integration initiatives, particularly the capital market infrastructure (CMI) project, which is in its final stages, and conducting regional public awareness drives as well as enhancing the capacity of players to enhance efficiency. “We must innovate, educate and advocate to ensure sustainability,” he said. Hilda Njeni, the head of legal and compliance at the Central Depository and Settlement Corporation in Kenya, said it is important to fast-track the CMI project and implement it by June next year. She noted that this would, however, require more engagement with stakeholders across the board.

The Dakar digital dollar (LiveMint)

Senegal, of which Dakar is the capital, announced last week that it will be issuing its own national digital currency, based on blockchain technology. Senegal’s new eCFA digital money will be legal tender and will share this status alongside the CFA paper money currently in circulation. The currency will be distributed solely by the central bank, and has passed e-money regulations set by the Central Bank of the West African Economic and Monetary Union. Senegal is actually the second country to introduce a blockchain-based digital currency. According to news reports, Tunisia has also developed an e-Dinar version that uses similar underlying blockchain technology.

Trans-African Pipeline: Morocco-Nigeria cooperation carries immense economic prospects for West Africa (Morocco World News)

Morlaye Bangoura, ECOWAS Commissioner for Energy and Mines, had this to say on the subject: “This big project is amply justified for our region, which is full of large quantities of natural gas, of which Nigeria alone holds 90% of revenues and 30% of the continent’s reserves.” Accordingly, Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire are already two producers and consumers of this strategic energy source. Recent discoveries of large gas deposits in Senegal and Niger, as well as the upcoming exploitation of new discoveries in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, point to a promising future for this long-awaited gas pipeline project. In concrete terms, the Moroccan-Nigerian partnership paves the way for the supply of energy to the countries via the future 4,000-kilometer pipeline. This gigantic project between the Gulf of Guinea and Morocco could ultimately also extend to Europe.

Financial development and economic growth: evidence from southern African development community countries (Johns Hopkins University Press)

This paper examines causality between financial development and economic growth for 10 SADC countries for the period 1994 to 2013. We employed the vector autoregression approach to conduct Granger causality tests to determine the direction of causality relationship between financial development and economic growth. Our findings suggest different policy routes for countries within the SADC region with regard to how they can grow their economies. Specifically, countries for which the reverse causality result holds should direct more resources towards stimulating economic growth through channels other than financial development in order to develop their financial sectors. On the other hand, we recommend that countries for which the financial development leading to economic growth result holds should channel more of their resources towards growing their financial sectors in order to drive economic growth. [The analysts: Ariuna Taivan, Gibson Nene. Published in The Journal of Developing Areas, Volume 50, Number 4, Fall 2016]

African Development Bank: MDR assessment summary (pdf, DfID)

AfDB’s organisational strengths include good risk management and transparency. The return of AfDB’s headquarters to Abidjan in 2014/15 delayed internal reforms and led to a significant increase in vacancies in critical posts. The reforms now need to be seen through to improve delivery and workforce planning completed to allow the posts to be filled. Since the 2013 MAR Update, the Bank has strengthened its policy and expertise on gender, climate and fragile and conflict-affected states, which now need to translate into tangible benefits for its borrower countries. [Reviews set out UK vision for an open, modern development system]

G20 Scorecard: Could do better on business policy priorities (ICC)

The International Chamber of Commerce has unveiled the latest edition of ICC G20 Business Scorecard rating G20 responsiveness to key business policy priorities for growing the global economy. The Scorecard shows G20 progress on a number of international business priorities but reveals important missed opportunities by the group to advance international trade and international policy frameworks. The sixth installment of the annual ICC G20 Business Scorecard rates G20 responsiveness to business priorities as ‘fair’ (2.3 out of 3.0). The sixth edition Scorecard examines a total of 25 business priorities put forward during the 2016 Chinese Presidency and rates the G20’s responsiveness across seven policy areas:

Circular economy principles could help India realise $624bn (UNCTAD)

India could save $624bn a year by 2050 if it adopts circular economy principles rather than following a conventional but more wasteful development path, according to a new report on India produced by the Ellen MacArthur Foundation in association with UNCTAD. Using data from UNCTAD, the report estimates that India could save costs amounting 11% of its current GDP in 2030 and 30% of GDP in 2050 if proven circular approaches were adopted by the public and private sectors. Greenhouse gas emissions could be cut by 44%. [Further details, downloads]

Trade and Environment Review 2016 (UNCTAD)

UNCTAD’s 2016 Trade and Environment Review examines issues pertinent to the promotion of sustainable use of living marine resources in healthy oceans and seas, bringing together a collection of independent articles by 24 leading experts and practitioners on fish governance systems; fish harvest, production and consumption; unsustainable fishing practices; fish and marine ecosystems management; and fish trade. The Review provides a succinct diagnosis of some of the key challenges to be faced in addressing SDG 14, as well as novel suggestions and innovations to advance its implementation. The Review also looks to the future of the fish trade, providing a prognosis of international trade in fish and fish products until 2035 and identifying three key trends:

States of Fragility 2016: understanding violence (OECD)

Analysis of multiple data sources shows that global violence is at its worst level since the end of the Cold War, with nearly half the world’s population, or 3.34 billion people, living in proximity to or feeling the impact of political violence. Conflict is one cause of violent deaths, but in 2015 more people died violently in countries not afflicted by conflict. Central America is the region that suffers the most lethal violence, followed by Southern Africa, the Caribbean and South America.

HLM2: Nairobi Outcome Document (Global Partnership, UNDP)

We recognize the specific issues facing Middle Income Countries (MICs) and will ensure that development cooperation addresses these. We will also promote effective South-South Cooperation and Triangular Cooperation.

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