News
tralac’s Daily News Selection
The selection: Tuesday, 8 November 2016
The two-day Invest in Namibia conference began today in Windhoek: a preview
@Trade_Kenya: Meeting on validation of the National Trade Policy ongoing, chaired by Trade PS, @Kiptoock
@o_merk: The value of global goods flows - ten times bigger in 2014 than in 1980, by @McKinsey
@JohnAshbourne: Nigeria has a booming consumer economy, but - other than oil - it produces very little. 90% of containers arriving at Naija ports leave empty.
Seaborne shipping grows at slowest pace since 2009: future remains uncertain (UNCTAD)
Seaborne shipments passed 10 billion tons for the first time ever in 2015, up 2.1% from 9.8 billion tons the year before, the UNCTAD Review of Maritime Transport 2016 (pdf) says, noting that this is the slowest pace of growth in the industry since 2009 and that future growth looks uncertain. Shipping carried more than 80% of the world’s goods by volume in 2015, and its slow growth reflects sluggish global trade, albeit with variations in the different sectors. Shipping of oil recorded its best performance since 2008, thanks to low oil prices, ample supply and stable demand. But shipping’s overall growth was dragged down by the limited growth of dry bulk commodity trade, in particular coal and iron ore, and by the poor performance of container shipping, which carries about 95% of the world’s manufactured goods. Developing countries account for ever larger shares of international shipping. By volume, they accounted for 60% of the goods loaded onto ships in 2015. In the same year, their share of goods unloaded was 62%, up from 41% in 2006. With the exception of a few Asian countries such as China, most developing country ports lack the infrastructure for bigger ships. So unless they spend heavily on upgrading their ports, developing countries face fewer port calls, less competitive markets and higher shipping costs.
Africa, global air freight posts stronger September growth (IATA)
The International Air Transport Association has released data for global air freight markets in September 2016 showing that demand, measured in freight tonne kilometers, rose 6.1% year-on-year. This was the fastest pace of growth since the disruption caused by the US West Coast seaports strike in February 2015. African carriers saw freight demand increase by 12.7% in September 2016 compared to the same month last year – the fastest rate in nearly two years. Capacity surged year-on-year by 34% on the back of long-haul expansion in particular by Ethiopian Airlines and North African carriers. [IATA’s September passenger traffic results]
Tanzania: Import bill maintains declining trend (Daily News)
The value of imports of goods and services has in five consecutive months declined to $10,875.6 million in September 2016, from $11,967.4 million in May, due to shilling depreciation that made imports more expensive. According to the Bank of Tanzania monthly economic report for September (pdf), the substitution of oil for gas in power generation also contributed to the decline of imports of goods and services. During the period under review, all categories of imports declined, save for industrial raw materials. The value of oil imports, which is dominant in goods import, declined by 9.4% to $2,805.6 million due to a fall in prices in the world market, which more than offset the modest increase in volume. [Electronic transactions jump to 88trn/- in 2015]
Egypt: Deficit in trade balance down by 3.1% in August (Daily News)
In a statement issued on Monday, CAPMAS noted that the deceleration happened because the value of exports increased by 22.9% to reach EGP 16.7bn in August compared to EGP 13.6bn in August 2015, due to an increase in the value of crude oil by 16.6%, ready-made garments by 7.1%, food ingredients by 6.9%, and fertilisers by 87.9%. On the other hand, the value of imports increased by 3.6%, rising to EGP 54.4bn instead of EGP 52.5bn in August 2015.
Roman Grynberg: India the world’s biggest exporter of bovine meat (The Namibian)
Global trade produces some of the most intriguing and often unexpected results. But they are only strange if you do not understand the details of the particular commodity. For example, Germany is the world’s biggest exporter of green coffee, and it does so without a coffee plant for 5 000 kilometres in any direction from Frankfurt. Germany exports more green coffee than all of Africa put together. Botswana exports boats from Maun in the Kalahari Desert, and India regularly exports four times as much Darjeeling tea as its 87 registered plantations produces. But perhaps the oddest outcome I have seen in international trade is the fact that largely Hindu and vegetarian India is now the world’s biggest exporter of bovine meat, surpassing Australia, the USA and Brazil.
Namibia: Growth strategies identified for 10 local industries (New Era)
The Ministry of Industrialisation, Trade and SME Development, on Friday morning, launched ten Industry Growth Strategies and a new Micro, Small and Medium Enterprise Policy that are aimed at shaping a new business environment for local businesses. However, Minister Immanuel Ngatjizeko cautioned that policies and strategies alone do not help if they are not followed by implementation. Through the execution of the 10 Industry Growth Strategies as well as the MSME National Policy, the MITSMED, in close cooperation with other line ministries, will support local value addition, upgrading and economic diversification.
Dry port at Usakos could ease pressure on Walvis Bay (Southern Times)
If the town of Usakos, some 180 kilometres from Walvis Bay on the western coast of Namibia, were to establish a dry port, it could turn the area into a logistics and transport hub and boost investment that can support social and economic activity and bring in net income worth R1.3bn. This is according to John Sanders, a business entrepreneur and owner of Amir Consulting Services, which specialises in transport economics and logistics. According to Sanders, it takes five to six days for cargo to clear at the Walvis Bay due to capacity challenges, which is why Namport is busy expanding the harbour, but that situation can be turned around with the construction of the Usakos dry port, which could reduce the time by one or two days.
Tanzania: Stakeholder perspectives on local content requirements in the petroleum sector (CMI)
To complete this study, we interviewed 40 stakeholders who had direct interests in the development of an LCP in the country: government officials, civil society organizations, educational institutions, private sector companies, and international oil companies. We also interviewed main donors involved in the LCP process, all of which also have strong commercial interests in the natural gas sector in Tanzania: the USA, the EU, the UK, Germany, Denmark and Norway.
East and Southern African members discuss transit guidelines (WCO)
Transit experts from Customs administrations in the East and Southern Africa region discussed the WCO Transit Guidelines at a Workshop held in Lusaka (31 October - 4 November 2016). The workshop was run in cooperation with the Zambia Revenue Authority and JICA. The workshop focused on discussion of the possible content of the Transit Guidelines, which will offer clear guiding principles and recommended practices for the establishment of effective transit regimes and will incorporate Members’ existing practices relating to transit operations. Transit experts exchanged views on over 146 standards drafted on different aspects of transit operations, including information exchange, guarantee systems, fees and charges for transit, Customs seals and coordinated border management. The development of the Transit Guidelines will be completed next year and this new WCO tool will be launched at the WCO Global Conference on Transit to be held on 10-11 July 2017 at WCO headquarters in Brussels.
Establishing accreditation in developing economies: a guide to opening the door for global trade (UNIDO)
The significance of an accreditation system for trade and the economy, as well as practical advice for the establishment of accreditation bodies, are the focus of a newly released publication titled, Establishing accreditation in developing economies: a guide to opening the door for global trade (pdf). Prepared by UNIDO, in cooperation with the International Accreditation Forum and the International Laboratory Accreditation Cooperation, the publication was launched at the ILAC - IAF joint General Assembly. The guide aims to support the common goal of “tested, inspected or certified once and accepted everywhere”. It is comprised of two parts. The first part focuses on the need for accreditation and the benefits that an accreditation system can bring to good governance. It provides policymakers with a framework for establishing an accreditation body or partnering with neighbouring economies to form a shared system, which can bring an economy closer to its trading partners through mutually recognized arrangements of accreditation. The second part offers comprehensive practical advice and building blocks to those who are tasked with establishing an accreditation body.
UNCTAD’s latest Investment Policy Monitor
Some 36 countries took 53 investment policy measures between 1 May 2016 and 15 October 2016, according to UNCTAD’s latest Investment Policy Monitor (pdf). The share of liberalization, promotion and facilitation measures during this period was 74%, which is lower than the average in recent years. These policy measures show a continued move towards improving entry conditions, reducing restrictions and facilitating foreign investment. Most measures were taken by developing countries and transition countries. New investment restrictions for foreign investors were mainly based on concerns about the local producers’ competitiveness or other national interests.
Toby Orr: Brexit should be good for Africa, and Africa could be good for Brexit, too (The Telegraph)
Some critics of Brexit accept that the UK will now have the freedom to alter trade policy in favour of supporting African development but doubt the institutional bandwidth exists to develop a set of enlightened trade policies. They believe all our efforts will be expended instead on trying to agree trade deals with the world’s big economies. But if British policymakers require motivation, then they should take a sideward glance at Turkey. Ankara has developed a strategic partnership with Africa, establishing trade agreements with 38 African countries and growing its network of embassies from just 12 in 2009 to 39 today. As a result, bilateral trade volumes have enjoyed a threefold increase since 2003. [The author is a senior partner at Portland and a director of Trade Out of Poverty]
Mohammad Razzaque, Brendan Vickers: Post-Brexit UK-ACP trading arrangements - some reflections (Commonwealth Trade Hot Topics)
The EU and its ACP partners have negotiated seven regional EPAs that are at different stages of finalisation or implementation (see Table 1). During the withdrawal negotiations, once the UK has triggered Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, the UK will continue to implement the EU’s common commercial policy and all bilateral and regional trade agreements, such as the EPAs. Once the UK has formally exited the EU, however, all rights and obligations under these various agreements will cease to apply and the UK will devise its own trade policy. Because the EPAs provide ‘better-than-MFN’ market access, the immediate impact could be that ACP exporters face MFN conditions in the UK market. While there is debate on what these MFN conditions would look like in a post-Brexit UK, one dominant view is that the EU MFN regime would be the starting point. Although current EU-UK MFN duty rates tend to be low, certain product categories, including those where ACP countries have export interests, attract much higher rates, known as tariff peaks. In the absence of more favourable trading arrangements, ACP exports to the UK could face a double impact. First, certain products could face higher MFN tariffs. Second, this would expose them to greater competition in the UK market, particularly from non-ACP developing countries. The overall impact will, however, depend on the relative significance of the UK market for ACP exports.
Related commentaries, resources: Daniel Gros - Triangulating Brexit (Project Syndicate), Full text: Theresa May’s address at India-UK Tech Summit, Joint statement between the UK, India governments
USA: Elite, public views towards global economic engagement (Pew Research)
The stark contrast between elite and public views of global economic engagement speaks to a larger divide in American society regarding the consequences of globalization. Educational attainment matters a great deal in terms of how Americans assess the benefits and costs of global economic engagement. In the April survey, six-in-ten Americans with a postgraduate degree thought involvement in the global economy was a good thing. More than half of Americans with a college degree felt the same. But only 36% of those with a high school education or less agreed.
China’s October exports, imports fall more than expected (Reuters)
South Africa: Rand takes over mantle of world’s most political currency (Bloomberg)
Angola, UNIDO, sign new country programming framework (UNIDO)
Cold-rolled steel imports hurting South Africa’s steel industry - trade group (Reuters)
Transnet sets aside $1.5bn for deals to expand services (Bloomberg)
Canada promises assistance for Nigerian exporters (The Nation)
ECOWAS Youth Council calls for immediate intervention Nigeria, Ghana trade, integration dispute (The Point)
The crowd-sourcing movement to improve African maps (Quartz)
tralac’s Daily News archive
Catch up on tralac’s daily news selections by following this link ».
SUBSCRIBE
To receive the link to tralac’s Daily News Selection via email, click here to subscribe.
This post has been sourced on behalf of tralac and disseminated to enhance trade policy knowledge and debate. It is distributed to over 350 recipients across Africa and internationally, serving in the AU, RECS, national government trade departments and research and development agencies. Your feedback is appreciated. Any suggestions that our recipients might have of items for inclusion are most welcome.
