Almost two-thirds of African citizens live in a country in which safety and rule of law deteriorated in the last ten years

The 2016 Ibrahim Index of African Governance (IIAG), launched on 3 October 2016 by the Mo Ibrahim Foundation, reveals that improvement in overall governance in Africa over the past ten years has been held back by a widespread deterioration in the category of Safety & Rule of Law.

The tenth edition of the IIAG, the most comprehensive analysis of African governance undertaken to date, brings together a decade of data to assess each of Africa’s 54 countries against 95 indicators drawn from 34 independent sources. This year, for the first time, the IIAG includes Public Attitude Survey data from Afrobarometer. This captures Africans’ own perceptions of governance, which provide fresh perspective on the results registered by other data such expert assessment and official data.

Over the last decade, overall governance has improved by one score point at the continental average level, with 37 countries – home to 70% of African citizens – registering progress. This overall positive trend has been led mainly by improvement in Human Development and Participation & Human Rights. Sustainable Economic Opportunity also registered an improvement, but at a slower pace.

However, these positive trends stand in contrast to a pronounced and concerning drop in Safety & Rule of Law, for which 33 out of the 54 African countries – home to almost two-thirds of the continent’s population – have experienced a decline since 2006, 15 of them quite substantially.

This worrying trend has worsened recently, with almost half of the countries on the continent recording their worst score ever in this category within the last three years. This is driven by large deteriorations in the subcategories of Personal Safety and National Security. Notably, Accountability is now the lowest scoring subcategory of the whole Index. Without exception, all countries that have deteriorated at the Overall Governance level have also deteriorated in Safety & Rule of Law.

The improvement in the Participation & Human Rights category, found in 37 countries across the continent, has been driven by progress in Gender and in Participation. However, a marginal deterioration appears in the subcategory Rights, with some worrying trends in indicators relating to the civil society space.

Sustainable Economic Opportunity is the IIAG’s lowest scoring and slowest improving category. However, 38 countries – together accounting for 73% of continental GDP – have recorded an improvement over the last decade. The largest progress has been achieved in the sub-category Infrastructure, driven by a massive improvement in the indicator Digital & IT Infrastructure, the most improved of all 95 indicators. However, the average score for Infrastructure still remains low, with the indicator Electricity Infrastructure registering a particularly worrying decline in 19 countries, home to 40% of Africa’s population. Progress has also been achieved in Rural Sector sub-category.

Human Development is the best performing category over the last decade, with 43 countries - home to 87% of African citizens – registering progress. All dimensions – Education, Health and Welfare – have improved, although progress in the sub-category Welfare has been affected by declines in Social Exclusion and Poverty Reduction Priorities indicators.

Mo Ibrahim, Chair of the Mo Ibrahim Foundation, says: “The improvement in overall governance in Africa over the last decade reflects a positive trend in a majority of countries and for over two-thirds of the continent’s citizens. No success, no progress can be sustained without constant commitment and effort. As our Index reveals, the decline in safety and rule of law is the biggest issue facing the continent today. Sound governance and wise leadership are fundamental to tackling this challenge, sustaining recent progress and ensuring that Africa’s future is bright.”

Key findings of the 2016 IIAG include:

• Over the past decade, the continental average score in Overall Governance has improved by one point.

• Since 2006, 37 countries, hosting 70% of African citizens, have improved in Overall Governance.

• The greatest improver at the Overall Governance level over the decade is Côte d’Ivoire (+13.1), followed by Togo (+9.7), Zimbabwe (+9.7), Liberia (+8.7) and Rwanda (+8.4).

• Even if Ghana and South Africa feature in the top ten performing countries in Overall Governance in 2015, they are also the eighth and tenth most deteriorated over the decade.

• At the Overall Governance level, the three highest scoring countries in 2015 are Mauritius, Botswana and Cabo Verde, and the three most improved over the decade are Côte d’Ivoire, Togo and Zimbabwe.

• Safety & Rule of Law is the only category of the Index to register a negative trend over the decade, falling by -2.8 score points in the past ten years.

• In 2015 almost two-thirds of African citizens live in a country where Safety & Rule of Law has deteriorated over the last ten years.

• Accountability is the lowest scoring (35.1) of the 14 sub-categories in 2015.

• The continental average score for the Corruption & Bureaucracy indicator has declined by -8.7 points over the last decade, with 33 countries registering deterioration, 24 of them falling to their worst ever score in 2015.

• A large majority (78%) of African citizens live in a country that has improved in Participation & Human Rights over the past decade.

• Progress over the decade in Participation & Human Rights (+2.4 points) has been driven by Gender (+4.3) and Participation (+3.0), while Rights (-0.2) registered a slight decline.

• Six of the ten highest scoring countries in Rights have registered deterioration in the past ten years.

• Two-thirds of the countries on the continent, representing 67% of the African population, have shown deterioration in Freedom of Expression over the past ten years. Eleven countries, covering over a quarter (27%) of the continent’s population, have declined across all three civil society measures – Civil Society Participation, Freedom of Expression and Freedom of Association & Assembly – over the decade.

• In 2015 more than two-thirds of African citizens (70%) live in countries where Sustainable Economic Opportunity has improved in the last ten years.

• Digital & IT Infrastructure is the most improved indicator (out of 95) of the IIAG over the decade.

• Diversification is the lowest scoring indicator in the IIAG, and shows deterioration over the past ten years.

• 40% of Africans live in a country which has registered deterioration in Electricity Infrastructure over the decade, with over half of Africa’s economy affected by this issue.

• The marginal deterioration of -0.8 points over the decade registered in Business Environment masks considerably diverging trends, with 24 countries declining, five by more than -10.0 points, and 28 countries progressing, five by more than +10.0 points.

• Niger, Rwanda, Côte d’Ivoire, Togo and Kenya have progressed by more than +10.0 points in Business Environment over the decade.

• 43 countries, hosting more than four-fifths (87%) of the African population, have registered improvement in Human Development over the decade. Rwanda, Ethiopia, Angola, and Togo have increased by more than +10.0 points in Human Development over the decade.

• All 54 countries have registered progress in Child Mortality over the decade.

• Over the last ten years, the Poverty indicator has registered improvement (+7.2 points), with 29 countries, accounting for 67% of Africa’s population and 76% of Africa’s GDP, improving.

• However, the Poverty Reduction Priorities indicator has registered an average decline of -1.3 points, with 23 countries, hosting 45% of Africa’s population, declining.

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Sustainable Economic Opportunity

A Decade of African Governance: Sustainable Economic Opportunity

Over the past decade, there has been a slight improvement in Sustainable Economic Opportunity (+1.8). However, it remains the lowest scoring category in 2015, achieving an African average score of 42.9 points.

The continental improvement since 2006 has largely been driven by Infrastructure (+6.5), the most improved sub-category of the IIAG, and to a lesser extent by Rural Sector (+2.6). In contrast, Business Environment (-0.8) and Public Management (-1.1) show a slight average decline.

A majority of countries (38) have shown improvement in Sustainable Economic Opportunity over the past ten years. While Morocco (+13.0) is the most improved country, Niger (+10.8), Egypt (+10.7), Togo (+10.6) and Zimbabwe (+10.5) all show notable improvements of over +10.0 points since 2006. A majority of African citizens (70%) live in countries which have seen an improvement in Sustainable Economic Opportunity in the past decade, and account for almost three-quarters (73%) of continental Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

However, only ten countries have managed to improve across all four constituent sub-categories of Sustainable Economic Opportunity: Côte d’Ivoire, Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya, Liberia, Morocco, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda and Togo.

Fifteen countries have declined in Sustainable Economic Opportunity over the past ten years. Of these, Libya shows the largest deterioration (-22.4), followed by Madagascar (-9.8), Eritrea (-5.6), Algeria (-5.2) and Ghana (-4.2). Four of these countries (Algeria, Eritrea, Libya and Madagascar) show widespread deterioration, declining across all four constituent sub-categories.

70% of African citizens live in countries which have seen an improvement in Sustainable Economic Opportunity in the past decade and account for 73% of continental GDP.

Infrastructure sub-category: key findings

Infrastructure is the most improved sub-category of the IIAG, registering strong progress of +6.5 points over the past decade. Even though still achieving a relatively low score of 39.1 it is no longer the lowest scoring sub-category.

Forty-three out of 54 countries register progress, 19 of them by more than +10.0 points. Morocco (+21.2) registers the largest improvement over the past ten years, followed by Egypt (+20.3) and São Tomé & Príncipe (+19.4). Morocco is one of seven countries to show year-on-year improvement since 2006, with Cabo Verde, Comoros, Djibouti, Kenya, Niger and Swaziland.

Meanwhile, only ten countries register deterioration in Infrastructure since 2006: Sierra Leone (-13.8), Libya (-7.9), Madagascar (-7.1), Ghana (-6.9), Algeria (-2.5), Burkina Faso (-2.3), Central African Republic (-2.1), Zimbabwe (-2.1), Eritrea (-0.7) and Botswana (-0.2).

Progress in Infrastructure over the last decade has been mainly driven by considerable improvement in Digital & IT Infrastructure (+23.6), the most improved indicator of the IIAG over the decade. Fifty countries out of 54 have improved in this indicator, with 35 countries registering a year-on-year improvement. Morocco (+51.8) is the most improved country, followed by Seychelles (+47.7), Cabo Verde (+47.5), Algeria (+47.4) and Ghana (+46.6).

Transport Infrastructure (+2.8), which covers road, rail and air transport, also shows a positive trend, with 34 countries showing improvement over the past ten years. Togo (+23.4) shows the largest improvement, followed by Kenya (+23.2) and Morocco (+20.6). However, Electricity Infrastructure has shown a marginal decline (-0.4) over the past decade, with 19 countries registering deterioration.

Public Management sub-category: key findings

Public Management is the most deteriorated sub-category in Sustainable Economic Opportunity, registering a decline of -1.1 points over the decade.

The negative trend seen at the continental level conceals diverging country performance over the past ten years, with 27 countries showing improvement and 26 countries deteriorating. Zimbabwe (+18.4) has shown the largest improvement, followed by Seychelles (+14.0), Democratic Republic of Congo (+9.6), Rwanda (+7.9) and Egypt (+7.8).

Meanwhile, Libya (-29.9) has shown the largest decline, with eight other countries showing a deterioration of more than -5.0 points: Algeria (-12.1), Mali (-8.8), Madagascar (-8.8), Central African Republic (-8.8), Eritrea (-8.7), Cameroon (-8.7), Ghana (-7.7) and Gabon (-7.7).

Diversification, one of the constituent indicators of Public Management, is the lowest scoring indicator (9.7) in the IIAG in 2015 and registers a negative trend of -3.0 points over the past ten years. The majority (30) of countries have deteriorated in this indicator since 2006, while 21 countries have improved, with Mauritius (+13.2), Mozambique (+10.7) and Namibia (+5.6) showing the most notable progress.

However, Statistical Capacity (+2.6) shows a positive trend, with 30 countries registering improvement over the past ten years. The countries to show the largest improvements are Liberia (+36.2), followed by Mauritius (+33.3) and Nigeria (+30.4), who all improve by over +30.0 score points.

On the same positive note, 39 countries have improved in Revenue Mobilisation over the past ten years. Zimbabwe (+25.7) is the most improved country in this measure, followed by Mozambique (+18.8) and Seychelles (+14.3).

Oil exporters: a lost opportunity

Oil prices have slumped since 2013 by around 70% – falling from $105 a barrel to $30 a barrel. Prices are expected to fall further, hurting revenues for oil exporting countries. Even if oil prices have been volatile over the long run, between 2000 and 2013 a steady rise in the price of oil meant high revenues for oil exporting countries.

The 14 African oil exporting countries – Algeria, Angola, Cameroon, Chad, Congo, Côte d’Ivoire, Democratic Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Ghana, Libya, Niger, Nigeria and Sudan1 – generally perform poorly. In 2015, 13 of these 14 countries register in the “Medium” or “Medium-Low” bands for Overall Governance. Even if Ghana is the only country to feature in the “Medium-High” band, it registers one of the continent’s largest deteriorations in Overall Governance over the past decade. Oil revenues accrued from the oil price boom between 2000 and 2013 have not been harnessed for the benefit of citizens.

Accounting for almost half (43%) of the continent’s economy, none of the oil exporting countries register in the “High” band in Sustainable Economic Opportunity. Only three countries feature in the “Medium-High” band (Algeria, Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana); four in the “Medium” band (Cameroon, Gabon, Niger and Nigeria); six in the “Medium-Low” (Angola, Chad, Congo, Democratic Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea and Sudan) and one “Low” (Libya). Moreover, ten oil exporters rank in the bottom half of Public Management and none rank in the top ten of this sub-category.

The oil exporting countries appear ill-prepared for the commodity price decline. Over the past ten years, all of them have seen a downturn in the indicator Ratio of Revenue to Expenditure. This decline is, on average, larger than for the rest of the continent. Moreover, 11 of these 14 countries rank in the bottom half of the indicator Diversification: Algeria, Angola, Cameroon, Chad, Congo, Democratic Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Libya, Nigeria and Sudan. On average, oil exporting countries have shown deterioration in this indicator over the past ten years.

The majority (11) of oil exporters rank in the bottom half of Revenue Mobilisation, which captures a country’s domestic resource mobilisation capacity: Algeria, Angola, Chad, Congo, Democratic Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Libya, Niger, Nigeria and Sudan. On average, the oil exporting countries have shown less improvement in this indicator compared to the rest of the continent over the past decade.

Business Environment sub-category: key findings

Business Environment is the third lowest scoring sub-category of the IIAG, achieving an average score of only 39.7 in 2015. Over the past ten years, it has shown a marginal deterioration of -0.8 points. This continental average masks considerably diverging country trends. Twenty-four countries register decline since 2006, five of them by more than -10.0 points: Madagascar (-21.7), Tunisia (-19.0), Libya (-17.6), Ethiopia (-16.4) and Sudan (-13.3). Twenty-eight countries show improvement, five by more than +10.0 points: Niger (+23.9), Rwanda (+18.4), Côte d’Ivoire (+13.3), Togo (+11.3) and Kenya (+10.4).

The sub-category’s disappointing performance is driven solely by Soundness of Banks (-21.5), the most deteriorated indicator in the IIAG since 2006. Thirty-five countries have declined in this indicator over the past ten years, with only five showing improvement: Nigeria (+4.8), Egypt (+4.3), Rwanda (+1.6), Morocco (+1.4) and Uganda (+1.2).

Meanwhile, the five remaining underlying indicators of Business Environment register improvement over the past decade. The strongest progress is registered by Investment Climate (+8.1) in which 35 countries have improved since 2006, three of them by more than +30.0 points: Benin (+50.0), Rwanda (+38.9) and Côte d’Ivoire (+33.4).