Trade surplus shrinks as exports fall

South Africa’s trade surplus shrank in July as the exports of precious metals and stones, which include gold and diamonds, declined.

The surplus decreased to R5.2 billion from R12.5bn in June, the SA Revenue Service said yesterday.

The median of nine economist estimates compiled by Bloomberg was for a surplus of R8bn. The rand’s 27 percent drop against the dollar last year has boosted exports, even as demand in South Africa’s largest trading partners is subdued.

Low metal prices and the worst drought in more than a century have weighed on South Africa, which will probably not grow at all this year, according to the central bank.

“External demand seems to have retained some resilience,” Manisha Morar, an economist at ETM Analytics, said. “We do see some risks to exports going forward.”

The cumulative surplus for this year is R17.4bn compared with a deficit of R24.7bn in the same period last year, the revenue agency said. Exports fell 9 percent to R95.7bn. Imports were 2.4 percent lower at R90.5bn as machinery and electronics and equipment components decreased.

The South African Revenue Service (SARS) has released trade statistics for July 2016 recording a trade balance surplus of R5.22 billion. The cumulative trade balance surplus (01 January to 31 July 2016) of R17.40 billion is an improvement on the deficit for the comparable period in 2015 of R24.67 billion. These statistics include trade data with Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland (BLNS).

Including trade data with Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland (BLNS)

The R5.22 billion trade balance surplus for July 2016 is attributable to exports of R95.72 billion and imports of R90.50 billion. Exports for the year-to-date grew by 10.1% from R592.22 billion to R652.07 billion. Imports for the year-to-date of R634.67 billion are 2.9% more than the imports recorded in January to July 2015 of R616.89 billion.

On a year-on-year basis, July 2016’s R5.22 billion trade balance surplus is an improvement from the deficit recorded in July 2015 of R1.67 billion. Exports of R95.72 billion are 3.5% more than the exports recorded in July 2015 of R92.48 billion. Imports of R90.50 billion are 3.9% less than the imports recorded in July 2015 of R94.15 billion.

June 2016’s trade balance surplus was revised downwards by R0.06 billion from the previous month’s preliminary surplus of R12.53 billion to a revised surplus of R12.47 billion as a result of ongoing Vouchers of Correction (VOC’s). Exports decreased from June 2016 to July 2016 by R9.44 billion (9.0%) and imports decreased from June 2016 to July 2016 by R2.18 billion (2.4%).

Trade highlights by category

The month-on-month export movements (R’ million):

The month-on-month import movements (R’ million):

Trade highlights by world zone

The world zone results from June 2016 (Revised) to July 2016 are given below.

Africa:

Trade Balance surplus: R15 440 million – this is a 18.4% decrease in comparison to the R18 914 million surplus recorded in June 2016.

America:

Trade Balance deficit: R 839 million – this is a 12.7% increase in comparison to the R744 million deficit recorded in June 2016.

Asia:

Trade Balance deficit: R12 292 million – this is a 6.7% increase in comparison to the R11 516 million deficit recorded in June 2016.

Europe:

Trade Balance deficit: R6 611 million – this is a 66.1% increase in comparison to the R3 979 million deficit recorded in June 2016.

Oceania:

Trade Balance deficit: R539 million – this is a deterioration in comparison to the R81 million surplus recorded in June 2016.

Excluding trade data with Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland (BLNS)

The trade data excluding BLNS for July 2016 recorded a trade balance deficit of R3.45 billion, a result of exports of R84.44 billion and imports of R87.89 billion.

Exports decreased from June 2016 to July 2016 by R8.58 billion (9.2%) and imports decreased from June 2016 to July 2016 by R2.07 billion (2.3%).

The cumulative deficit for 2016 is R42.61 billion compared to R84.86 billion in 2015.

Trade highlights by category

The month-on-month export movements (R’ million):

The month-on-month import movements (R’ million):

Trade highlights by world zone

The world zone results for Africa excluding BLNS from June 2016 (Revised) to July 2016 are given below.

Africa:

Trade Balance surplus: R6 770 million – this is a 28.8% decrease in comparison to the R9 503 million surplus recorded in June 2016.

Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland (Only)

Trade statistics with the BLNS for July 2016 recorded a trade balance surplus of R8.67 billion, a result of exports of R11.28 billion and imports of R2.61 billion.

Exports decreased from June 2016 to July 2016 by R0.86 billion (7.1%) and imports decreased from June 2016 to July 2016 by R0.12 billion (4.3%).

The cumulative surplus for 2016 is R60.01 billion compared to R60.19 billion in 2015.

Trade highlights by category

The month-on-month export movements (R’ million):

The month-on-month import movements (R’ million):