The WTO launched a new annual statistical publication – the “World Trade Statistical Review” – on 21 July. This new publication provides insights into how world trade has evolved in recent years by analysing the latest trade statistics within an economic context.

The publication opens with an overview of world trade developments in 2015 and an assessment of the trade outlook in early 2016. This is followed by an in-depth analysis of the latest trends in the global trade of goods and commercial services. 

The publication contains an in-depth look at the participation of developing economies in world trade, analysing in particular the role of least-developed countries. It also provides a summary of the main developments in trade-policy making, highlighting the latest data on WTO members’ use of trade-restrictive and trade-facilitating measures. These analytical chapters are complemented by over 50 tables providing comprehensive data on various facets of world trade in goods and services.

“World Trade Statistical Review” replaces the WTO’s previous annual statistical publication, “International Trade Statistics”, which used to be published in October of each year. This new publication will be made available annually in July, bringing it closer to its reporting period. A print version in English, French and Spanish will be published in early September.  

More extensive trade data can be found in the WTO Statistical database and in the International Trade and Market Access tool on the WTO website, which is regularly updated with short-term trade data sourced in cooperation with the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). Trade data based on finalised figures for 2015 will be made available in the WTO Statistical database at the end of October, as in previous years.

Other statistical output regularly provided by the WTO includes short-term data on merchandise trade and commercial services trade and the WTO’s new World Trade Outlook Indicator, which is designed to give an early indication of the future direction of world trade.     

Later this year, the WTO will publish its annual “Trade Profiles” and “World Tariff Profiles”. The new edition of “Trade Profiles” will incorporate for the first time profiles on trade in services, providing handy two-page summaries of the most important trade data for more than 160 countries. “World Tariff Profiles”, which is produced in cooperation with UNCTAD and the International Trade Centre (ITC), will include an analysis of the latest developments in non-tariff measures as well as the latest data on tariffs. Both publications will be made available online and in a printed format.

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General trends and drivers of world trade in 2015

Overview

Growth in the volume of world merchandise trade remained sluggish in 2015, at 2.7 per cent as measured by the average of exports and imports. This figure was revised downward from a preliminary estimate of 2.8 per cent released in April 2016 based on available data at the time. Slow global trade growth was accompanied by a modest increase in world GDP, which grew 2.4 per cent in real terms at market exchange rates in the same period.

Several factors contributed to the lacklustre performance, including economic slowdown in China, recessions in other large developing economies including Brazil, falling prices for oil and other primary commodities, strong fluctuations in exchange rates, and financial volatility driven by divergent monetary policies in developed countries. Faster economic growth and rising import demand in developed countries partly made up for weaker demand elsewhere, leaving trade growth and output growth nearly unchanged compared with the previous year (2.8 per cent and 2.5 per cent, respectively, in 2014). 2015 marked the fourth consecutive year with trade volume growth below 3 per cent, and the fourth year in a row with world trade growing at nearly the same rate as world GDP. Growth rates for trade and GDP in 2015 remained below their respective averages since 1990 of 5 per cent and 2.7 per cent.

The slow pace of trade growth relative to GDP growth over the past four years stands in contrast to the period from 1990 to 2008, during which world merchandise trade volume grew 2.1 times as fast as world GDP on average. The recent uninterrupted spell of slow trade growth is unusual but not unprecedented, and its importance should not be exaggerated. Overall, world trade growth was weaker between 1980 and 1985, when five out of six years saw trade growth below 3 per cent, including two years of outright contraction.

Unlike merchandise trade in volume terms, which recorded a modest increase last year, the dollar value of world merchandise trade declined sharply in 2015 as exports fell 13 per cent to US$ 16 trillion, down from US$ 19 trillion in the previous year. World trade in commercial services also registered a substantial decline in dollar terms (exports down 6 per cent to US$ 4.7 trillion). Larger declines were recorded in services categories closely linked to merchandise trade (e.g. transport services, down 10 per cent to US$ 876 billion) than in other types of services, in particular travel and other commercial services, both down 5 per cent to US$ 1,230 billion and US$ 2,495 billion respectively.

The discrepancy between trade growth in 2015 in terms of volume and value was mostly attributable to large swings in commodity prices and exchange rates. Fuels registered the largest price decline of any commodity group (down 63 per cent between June 2014 and December 2015), as a result of new sources of supply such as shale oil and an easing of world energy demand as economic growth slowed in Asia. The decline in metals prices (down 35 per cent over the same period) was smaller than the decline in fuels due to the fact that there was no increase in the supply of metals comparable to the development of shale oil in the United States. Prices of food and agricultural raw materials also fell, by around 22 per cent each between June 2014 and December 2015.

The appreciation of the US dollar contributed to falling commodity prices since most primary products are priced in dollars and a stronger US currency generally allows the same quantity of goods to be purchased with fewer dollars.

The dollar appreciated 13 per cent on average against the currencies of US trading partners in 2015 (i.e. in “nominal effective” terms), and was up even more (19 per cent) between June 2014 and December 2015. The Chinese yuan appreciated along with the dollar, rising 10 per cent on average in 2015 and 13 per cent between June 2014 and December 2015, due to the Chinese currency’s quasi-peg to the US dollar at the time. The appreciation of the yuan may have contributed to the economic slowdown in China to the extent that it made Chinese exports more expensive in foreign markets. Meanwhile, major natural resource exporters such as Brazil and the Russian Federation saw their currencies drop sharply in value in 2014 as falling prices for oil and other commodities reduced export earnings.

Developing economies’ participation in world trade

Merchandise exports – in terms of US dollar values – from developing economies and least-developed countries (LDCs) were badly hit by significantly lower prices for fuels and mining products in 2015. LDCs’ exports suffered the most, recording a 25 per cent decline, while exports from developing economies fell by 14 per cent. LDCs’ share of world exports dropped to below 1 per cent for the first time since 2007.

Exports of commercial services from developing economies contracted by 3 per cent in 2015. The decline in transport exports reflected weak merchandise trade while travel receipts fell only slightly. LDCs recorded growth in exports of commercial services, which rose by 1 per cent, assisted in particular by the continuing expansion of travel exports. However, LDCs’ participation in global exports of commercial services remained negligible at 0.8 per cent.

Spotlight on Africa: Trade in fuels and export diversification

Oil exporters in Latin America, the Middle East and Africa were negatively affected by an increased global supply of oil and the subsequent fall in fuel prices, which dampened growth in those regions. Declines in African exports followed closely the declines in fuel prices, with all eight African oil and gas exporters recording declines in exports in both 2014 and 2015. As a group, the eight African oil and gas exporters experienced a 52 per cent decrease in exports between 2013 and 2015.

One reason for the decrease in fuel exports was the increased oil production by the United States. Between 2012 and 2014 the United States reduced fuel imports from Africa by 59 per cent as a result of increased domestic production. This decrease in fuel imports contributed to a 47 per cent fall in the value of Africa’s total exports to North America during this period. In 2014, North America’s share of Africa’s total exports was only 7 per cent compared with 11 per cent in 2012.

However, among the eight oil and gas exporters, exports of manufactured goods continued to grow. For example, although Algeria’s exports of manufactured goods represent a very small percentage of its total exports, which are dominated by trade in fuels, its exports of manufactured chemicals grew by almost 150 per cent from 2013 to 2014. According to the latest data available, the percentage of manufactured goods as a share of African exports grew from 19 per cent in 2013 to 21 per cent in 2014.

Manufactured goods continued to experience positive trade growth (although at a decelerating rate) in 2013 and 2014 alongside trade of agricultural products, in contrast to exports of fuels and other mining products. The top four traders, which also represent several of the most economically diverse countries in Africa, weathered the downturn in the last few years better than the commodity-dependent oil and gas exporters.

» Download: World Trade Statistical Review 2016 (PDF, 6.86 MB)